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Recent Blog Posts

Trading Advice #1

Q: Just wondered where you learnt FX, got an understanding, but just trying to get a strategy down.

A: It’s mixed some of it is my own experience and some are from a traders discord community I’ve set up. The best way I’ve learned to build a strategy is created a demo account and treat it as a real account in a manner but with unlimited money. Sounds strange I know. But it gave me the foundations to try and find what works for me. What works for me might not work for you. So you could possibly do the same. Also, I’ve learned you can’t have one fixed strategy you have to move with the market. Follow the flow of the market. Also doing research on what makes things move helps too. For instance, I trade GBP/USD. Now sometimes the dollar might be nice and weak but with euro strength that would be a good time to scalp. If the euro was also weak that would be good to do a long strategy.

Q: Tried a mixture, everyone says it’s the psychology, but that can only be worked on once a system or method is developed.

A: Psychology. The only Psychology is you make sure your ‘mistakes’ don’t make you quit trading. They will either make you find faults and make excuses or make you to decided to analyse what you did wrong and how you can maybe not screw up as much in the future. System and Method. I don’t believe in them fully. You have to move with the markets and be able to adapt to instant change like I said you have to learn to follow the flow. The way I look at charts is it’s like being in space. There is no gravity to hold it down so it just floats about like it wants too. And we use support and resistance lines as a place for it to bounce from and too. Also, a good bit of advice follow the smart money. Look at H4 and look for tell sighs of maybe this is an uptrend or a downtrend. Follow the smart money and it’s like picking apples from a very low tree

Traders Discord: https://discord.gg/gCjzBW5

GBP – Time To Buy The Range?

Its a Saturday night (yes I’m doing analysis on weekend. Gota stay ahead of the game) and I’ve looked at my chart that compares GBP vs EURO, USD & JPY (That is the chart you can see above) and if I look correctly we’ve had a nice double top formation that was a perfect example of when to sell.

Now if we follow the flow of the chart we can see that since around the middle of August we had a nice break out to the upside and then we had a very slow downtrend to find some support. But take note of what we did next we decided to range before we see a breakout in around December to take for them highs and then we ranged again and then we went for a breakout for another high setup. Now we’ve formed a double top witch to me normally implies we need a pullback to generate a nice buying pool so we can take a go at the high again.

The main reason I could see us ranging is due to the pattern formation on this chart. Also, the dollar seems to be finding support here and there with dollar squeezes and due to Brexit and how that is treating GBP. GBP seems to be on a knife edge and any bad news about Brexit can easily turn a nice interday uptrend into a sell-off.

So with the dollar squeeze and euro gaining some traction via Brexit talks and bad news we could see a range trade set up. I won’t be posting levels on G/U or E/G or G/J until the market opens on Sunday night. Want to see what levels present them selfs from the market open.

GBP/USD – Range Trade Starting?

Some simple support and resistance lines for GBP/USD. From looking at the chart and how we’ve been trading in the past we could see a drop below the 1.37290 handle before we start to see a range trader confirmation.

As you may be able to identify from the chart above GBP/USD has a habit of range trading before there is a decision this, of course, is largely due to the dollar index also range trading as there isn’t any clear direction indication.

We can use past history to give us some indication of how events will turn out.

Range Trading – If we keep seeing dollar squeezes with Euro weakness then cable should be able to keep its ground and we will identify within the range

Break For Lower Levels – If a dollar squeeze turns into good dollar support and momentum and we see euro strength due to Brexit negotiations not going the way they should this could spark a big G/U sell-off down to the mean level (SMA 100).

Break For Higher Levels – If we see a repeat of how the dollar has been acting (ranging before the dollar index breaks down) and we have good Brexit negotiation news then we could see a spark for the high level of 1.45. Even if we see bad Brexit negotiations we could still see G/U head towards 1.45/46 just down to the dollar weakness.

FOMC Day

We’ve got FOMC today. Bloomberg cover 6 things to watch out for. You can read this below.

Here are some levels that have been presented them self today.

GBP/USD: 1.41203 has been seen as a good interday support zone. We could see a uptrend towards the week high of 1.42126. If we see the level of  1.42125 and it becomes a support zone this could be another push for the 1.43 handle.

EUR/USD: is fighting with the weeks high at the moment. 1.23974 has accted as the interday support zone. it’s also the daily piviot point. If 1.24600 acts as a support we could see E/U taking another go at the month high of 1.25374

USD/JPY: Is on a downtrend at the moment. Support has been found at 108.275 with a week resistance of 109.199. If U/J can’t brake the week resistance of 109.199 i could see a downtrend towards the 107.327 level.

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting this week is likely to reinforce the baseline expectation of three hikes this year thanks to a more upbeat outlook for the U.S. and global economies, and somewhat diminished concern about “lowflation.”

Specifically:

  1. Rather than be deterred by the headline miss on the first estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth reported Jan. 26, Fed officials are likely to welcome the data’s relatively strong internals, particularly those regarding investment and consumption. Indeed, the latest numbers will be seen as adding to a more general string of solid economic reports, both for the U.S. and for the rest of the world.
  2. This synchronized pickup in global growth, along with increased comfort with the inflation dynamics, will solidify the previous baseline guidance of three 25-basis-points hikes in 2018, with the first likely to take place in March. The recent depreciation of the dollar also contributes to this outlook. Indeed, compared with last year, market and Fed expectations for the annual path of rate hikes are on track for a much earlier convergence.
  3. Although some observers and market participants may also be tempted to alter the balance of risks to the upside — that is, to expect four rather that two hikes in the event the current baseline fails to materialize — the Fed will see the two-sided risks as balanced for now.
  4. There is unlikely to be anything new or notable about the balance-sheet reduction plan. The previously announced timeline won’t be revised or even highlighted in any major way. Meanwhile, more general exploratory discussions about frameworks and targets are likely to proceed gradually, with the aim of ensuring continued effective baseline management and exploring contingencies, resilience and reactions in the event of unanticipated adverse shocks.
  5. With a successful steady-as-it goes monetary policy in the U.S., more attention will need to be devoted to the economic and market impact, including on U.S. interest rates and other market valuations, of the actions likely to be taken this year by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank in response to better-than-anticipated developments in their economies. But Fed deliberations on these matters are unlikely to be publicized in any notable fashion.
  6. Finally, this will be Chair Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting, and she is likely to receive lots of accolades from her colleagues. Working collaboratively and effectively with other Fed governors and regional presidents, she has engineered an ongoing “beautiful normalization” — that is, a gradual, cautious and sequential exit from years of unconventional monetary policies that has neither disrupted markets nor derailed growth. The new Fed chair, Jerome Powell, is well placed to build on and successfully extend this achievement.

Source: Bloomberg